Shades of 1992

John Zenor, an AP sports writer, has written an article comparing the Alabama ‘92 squad to this year’s team. It’s a really good article, and very similar to the one I wrote back in October. The only difference was in October it looked like Texas was the team to beat. Now, it’s Florida.

Alabama vs. Florida [SEC Championship 2008 Breakdown]

It seems as though everyone is saying, for all intents and purposes, that the SEC Championship game this year is a National Championship semi-final. Alabama is ranked #1, Florida #2, and the winner will undoubtedly advance to play in Miami for the title. They’re also ready to hand Florida the crown before the game is even played.

Florida is the sexy pick
Despite Alabama’s unblemished string of W’s this season, Florida is the near-unanimous pick to win the game, but I’d like to remind everyone of a few things. First: A spread (in which a certain team is favored over another team by a “spread” of points) is dictated by the gambling public. If Vegas sees heavy betting one way or another, they adjust the spread to even out according to what the gambling public believes will happen. So, is it disrespect that Alabama’s a ten point dog? No, they were a 14 point dog last week, and frankly, who cares? The gambling public is not an entirely reliable source. Maybe it is to you, but I still say they fail to consider many key factors when it comes to football.

As it is every year, the gambling public is dazzled by high-powered offenses and for some reason think they’re unbeatable, despite having been proved wrong time and time again since the beginning of football time. Remember what the Bear once said, “Offense sells tickets, but defense wins championships.” So you’ll forgive me if I ignore the gambling public’s opinion and break the game down in a way that a lot of us commoners don’t immediately consider.

The history of the matchup
Alabama leads the all-time series with 21 wins to Florida’s 13. They first played in 1904 (Alabama won 29-0), and last played in ‘06 (Florida won 28-13). In their last 20 meetings, Alabama is 13-7 against the Gators, and beat them twice in ‘99, once in the regular season and again for the SEC championship. In their last 5 meetings, Alabama still holds the edge, 3-2. That’s the history, of course, and has very little bearing on this weekend’s matchup. Some people might like to predict the outcome based on a trend, but I believe trends are just another record meant to be broken.

The unimportant matchup everyone considers
Both Florida and Alabama have good defenses, and Florida obviously has the more potent offense. With most people, this is as far as a matchup needs to be considered. And this is exactly the reason why everyone under the sun is picking Florida to win.

I hear people asking the question: “How many points will Alabama have to score to keep up with Florida?” or “How many points can Alabama afford to let Florida score in order to have a chance?” The fact is, if the game can be kept close, Alabama can win. If Alabama can score at all, they can win. Alabama’s front seven is as good as any in the country, and their O-line is heralded as the best in the SEC. Games are won in the trenches, folks.

The gambling public, as well as many “experts,” are trying to predict the outcome of this game by looking at unimportant matchups. Florida has the better QB, Florida has the better offense, Alabama gets the slight edge in defense, and look! Florida has slightly better rushing statistics than Alabama. Running the ball is Alabama’s bread and butter, right? So if Florida does that better than Alabama, then it’s a wash, obviously, Florida will win.

They’ll compare defensive secondaries, linebacking corps, running backs and wide receivers. What’s interesting to me is that they rarely compare a receiving corps versus a secondary. I’d rather know how Florida’s O-line will handle Terrence Cody and the Alabama defensive front, than to compare one defensive front to the other, which tells us nothing of how the game will play out.

Matchups–Breaking down the game
The matchups you should be considering are these:

• Can Florida penetrate Alabama’s defensive line, and if so, can they get past the linebacking corps?
• Can Alabama’s O-line move Florida’s front 4?

Florida will move the ball, there’s no disputing that. But Alabama will move the ball as well, you can take that to the bank. The big difference here is that Alabama’s middle line will slow down the Florida rushing attack, and with the line clogged Tebow will have to go to the air or run it himself. 

Dictating tempo
Alabama’s main success will be in running the ball behind the best offensive line in the SEC. And what does that mean, really? It means that Florida will have to adjust to Alabama’s style of play, something Alabama has dictated to their opponents all season long. There hasn’t been a single game this season that Alabama hasn’t dictated the tempo and controlled the clock. And when Alabama forces their opponent to adjust, the scales just tipped into Alabama’s favor. That’s a huge advantage, and people who know football will understand that dictating the tempo and controlling the clock will reap dividends in field position and give more opportunities to get turnovers.

Penalties
Another interesting statistic to look at is penalties. Georgia is the most-penalized SEC team with 105 penalties this season for nearly 900 yards. Florida is second with 88 penalties for 713 yards. Alabama is giving away the least free yardage in the SEC, with 48 penalties for 422 yards. So, Florida is giving away 60 yards per game, while Alabama is giving away only 35.

What it boils down to
So the real matchup in this game, the biggest question mark left, is this: Can the Alabama secondary manage Florida’s passing attack. And the answer to that question is, undeniably, yes. Because Alabama will have already dictated what they’ll allow Florida to do by clogging the line and controlling the clock.

And the biggest statistic of all
The statistic everyone sees floating right before their eyes but fails to consider in context is this: Florida has not been challenged by any single team this season except the one that beat them. Sometimes it’s good to have to scrap and fight and claw to win a game. So, while some people compare the margins of victory of both teams against LSU, Kentucky and Georgia and see it as a benefit to Florida, it is actually more of a benefit to Alabama. Having had to scrap out some wins means Alabama knows how to do it. Florida’s breezed through their schedule, scoring at will, and the one time they were faced with an opposition who gave them a fight they lost.  

Why is everyone ignoring Arkansas?
When comparing margins of victory, everyone keeps bringing up Kentucky, Georgia and LSU. No one considers the Arkansas game. A team Alabama beat 49-14 and Florida beat 38-7. They see broader margins of victory over Kentucky and LSU for Florida and try to predict the outcome of the SEC championship based on those scores. Well, if you’re going to consider those games, shouldn’t you consider Arkansas, too? The fact is that none of those margins of victory mean a thing. That’s the way that team played on that day, and the score reflected the matchups on the field.

The Tebow factor
The only real advantage we can give Florida is their quarterback. Tebow is a difference maker, and the outcome of the game could come down to how well he can run his quarterback draw. If Alabama keeps him in the pocket, look for a Crimson Saturday night.

The Scheme
I think I’ll go with Nick Saban here. Saban is a master strategist and if the game comes down to who’s got the better game plan, Alabama will win. Florida hasn’t had to game plan a win this season. They haven’t had to out-scheme an opponent to rise to victory. The one time they were faced with that challenge they failed. Florida will depend on their superior talent to deliver, and if that talent is neutralized by a superior scheme, they’ll fail.  

The end result
The matchups we’ve considered are:

• Penalties. Advantge-Alabama
• Ability to win a close game. Advantage-Alabama
• Florida’s O-line vs Alabama’s defensive front. Advantage-Alabama
• Dictating tempo. Advantage-Alabama
• Scheme. Advantage-Alabama

Can Alabama Beat Florida?

Sure they can. Remember 1992? Going to play Miami in the Sugar Bowl the media pronounced the game over before it even began. Alabama had a “second rate defense and a one-dimensional offense.” Miami had the Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback and were the defending national champions. And then Alabama plowed them under, 34-13.

There are plenty of examples of the same type scenario: the nation is mesmerized by the potent offense of a team like Florida (Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, etc. etc.), forgetting that a bruising rushing attack controls the clock, keeps the ball out of that potent offense’s hands, and a stifling defense makes that potent offense look a lot more pedestrian.

The Florida team you will see on Saturday will look a lot different from the one you’re used to seeing pummel their opponents. Alabama is well-equipped to handle the Gators.

Alabama: 34
Florida: 28

Asked how he feels about being an underdog to Florida in the SEC Championship game, Nick Saban said, “That’s a’ight, don’t bother me any.”

One Hundred Years of Domination

Alabama’s been playing football since 1892. They won their first Rose Bowl and National Championship under Coach Wallace Wade in 1925. Over their 100+ year history, they’ve amassed 12 national championships and have been to more bowls–and won more–than any other team. In the history of college football, only Notre Dame has been nearly as successful. In fact, it’s safe to say that Alabama and Notre Dame are programs 1A and 1B and everyone else is ranked behind them.

Here is a fact: Coming into this season, since 1908, Notre Dame had 1 more win than Alabama for most wins in the past 100 years of college football. We’ve all seen Notre Dame post their 6-6 record this season, and everyone is also well aware that Alabama is 12-0 and ranked #1 in the country. Did you also know that Alabama has now moved into first place in wins over the last 100 years? Does that make Alabama the program of the century? I think so, yes. Over the last 100 years, Alabama is #1, and all other football programs are #2 or lower, including Notre Dame.

Wins, from 1908 – 2008:

1. Alabama: 754
2. Notre Dame: 748
3. Texas: 747
4. Oklahoma: 743
5. Tennessee: 731
6. Southern Cal: 717
7. Nebraska: 715
8. Ohio State: 712
9. Michigan: 710
10. Penn State: 706

Kiffin Has Plenty To Prove

Lane Kiffin is a good guy with a good pedigree (his father is heralded defensive guru Monte Kiffin of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers), he’s had good coaching experience as a coordinator (SoCal Offensive Coordinator), but as a head coach his only job was with the Oakland Raiders, where he was fired.

Granted, the Raiders are a train wreck, but we here at Houndstooth wonder how Kiffin got that job in the first place. And to go from being fired by Al Davis into the SEC’s second greatest program ever?

He’s made some good moves right off the bat, stealing his dad from Gruden to be the DC and Ed Orgeron will be OC, but it remains to be seen if he can rebuild the Vols. I’m betting Kiffin’s going to be on a short leash, because the Vols have great talent. If he doesn’t turn this thing around in a year or two it’s going to be adios, moving on to the next coach.

Houndstooth SEC Coach Rank

The regular season is a wrap, and now, three months later, the SECs vaunted head coaches don’t look nearly as impressive as they once did. Top heavy, you might say. But times are a changing. Croom Croomed himself, there are now four former NFL coaches in the SEC coaches ranks, and the Fat One has said sayonara. Here’s the last regular-season SEC coach rank for 2008:

1. Nick Saban— Saban has proven himself again. Any doubters? You may hate him, but you also fear him. 
2. Houston Nutt — Went into the Swamp and handed Florida their asses. Finished off the regular season with 5 straight wins. Ole Miss is bowl bound, but, looking at the mess that Arkansas is in now, we have to wonder if he can sustain success.
3. Tommy Tuberville — Tubs made himself a mockery this year, and the Auburn nation, which at season’s start argued that Tubs was a top 5 coach in the entire country, are eagerly awaiting his firing, which won’t be coming any time soon. Still, Tubs is a good coach, he just stayed a little too loyal to his offensive staff. That’s going to change in the off season, and he’ll hire the right guy for the job and let him bring his own people in.
4. Bobby Petrino— Yes, Arkansas is a train wreck. We’ll know a lot more once they meet up with Auburn this weekend. They’ve got a lot of offense, but can’t seem to score very much, and the defense hasn’t shown up yet. It’s a matter of seeing if the team will meld under Petrino’s leadership. One thing’s for certain, Petrino will either go up or down in the next poll.
5. Steve Spurrier — It’s becoming clearer and clearer that Spurrier–if he ever wants to coach a winning team again–will have to abandon SC and go somewhere he can recruit better players.
6. Rich Brooks — Takes his team of mediocre talent about as far as they can go.
7. Lane Kiffin — Tennessee may not have hired a coach with exceptional head coaching experience, but they did hire a guy who appears to have at least an ounce of class, which is more than they did the last time. Having an iota of class officially ranks Kiffin above Meyer in this poll, by the way. 
8. Bobby Johnson—  Vandy started off strong but wilted down the stretch. But they are bowl eligible for the first time in a long, long time.
9. Mark Richt— Georgia has stellar talent and zero discipline. They lead the league in penalties and fall apart when the going gets tough. Richt, once highly considered by this blog, had better get a handle on things before the wheels come off.
10. Urban Meyer— Classless. Has more talent short of USC and victimizes lesser teams. Rumored to be leaving for Notre Dame: good riddance.
11. Les Miles— The boob blew it. Saban’s players are all gone and now, suddenly, Miles is having to field a team with filled with players he recruited. Result? 7-5 with a bowl game left to play, and that from a team which has recruited top 5 classes since Miles has been there.  
12. MSU – Vacant

FIX IT

Once again, voters’ opinions have thrown the national championship race into turmoil. How it’s possible that Oklahoma is ranked ahead of Texas, who beat them, is beyond me. And again, as I wrote last week, no way does USC deserve to be ranked ahead of Texas Tech.

The NCAA has always been a duplicitous beast. It hammers the teams that it supposes have transgressed some of its hallowed rules, but then it lays off the teams and conferences, letting them formulate their own methods for determining their champions. The SEC proved that a championship game is the right way to go, and the Big 12 followed suit. Now it’s time for the Big 10 and the PAC 10 to get on board. The recent trend of voters’ rewarding conferences who do have a championship game is promising, as seen last year when 2-loss LSU played for the BCS title in lieu of 2-loss USC. At least they got that one right.

But this year the polls are on their backs, and the official is counting. Something must be done to fix the system. I’ve already given one idea that could work without instituting a playoff, which the powers-that-be are so adamantly opposed to. But a few things must happen without question: The Big 10 and PAC 10 must crown their champions in a championship game. The Big 10 will have to either add a team or cut a team for that to happen, but if Notre Dame would get off their high horse and join, both the Big 10 and ND would be better off for it. All the PAC 10 really has to do is schedule the game and play it, since they’ve already got an even number of teams, although it would be nice if they’d add a couple more teams to the pot.

The Big 10 and PAC 10 may already have plans to that effect. Surely they see that their lack of a conference championship is costing them consideration at season’s end. Everyone said the SEC would put themselves out of contention when they started up their championship game, but in fact, just the opposite has happened. The SEC is getting more consideration because of the championship game. Several other conferences have followed suit. At this point, to refrain is nothing more than a display of stubbornness.

There are ways to fix the system, NCAA. We all know you hate the idea of a playoff, despite the wishes of the fans of the sport, but there are other ways than the BCS. Use your imagination and come up with one, or just ask me, I’ve got a guaranteed formula for success. I call it the Super Conference.

USC Leapfrogs Texas Tech?

AP voters, you’ve really screwed up this time. With USC leapfrogging Tech in the most recent polls, the BCS picture–still not reliable due to its dependence on voters’ opinions–is once again screwed up.

Let’s look at the losses these two teams have suffered. Both have one loss; USC’s to Oregon State, a 7-3 team with a conference loss to weakling Stanford, and TT’s to Oklahoma, another one-loss team whose only loss came at the hands of Texas, current one-loss #2 in the BCS. Aside from that, TT plays in a much stronger conference–and don’t give me that crap about how USC’s defense is the best in the nation, if TT was playing in the lackluster PAC-10 their defense would look stellar too.

How is it possible that two teams with one loss each can be ranked so wrong? There’s no way SC deserves to be ranked ahead of TT, other than the love affair current AP voters have with all-things Pete Carroll. Give us a break, AP, vote for body of work instead of who you’d like to see winning. At worst, TT shouldn’t have dropped below fifth.

The Big 12–of which I am not counted as a fan, by the way–should have some combination of teams ranked currently at numbers 2, 3, and 4. Period. How you rank them is up in the air, but there’s no question in my mind that Texas’s, Oklahoma’s and Texas Tech’s one loss each is a much better loss than either Florida (who lost to a pretty good team in Mississippi and should be ranked #5) and USC, who lost to Oregon State and should be ranked no higher than #6.

What’s really frustrating about this is that I don’t even see how there can be any question that it should be this way. So long as you’re looking at things rationally and with no bias, at this stage in the season the top ten is pretty clear cut. At least it is if you’re not an AP voter.

Here’s the current Houndstooth Top 10. There’s not much difference between this poll and the AP poll, except 1-5 and flip flopping Utah and Penn State. But at this point in the season every little spot counts big time, and USC just doesn’t deserve to be a top 5 team:

1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Oklahoma
4. Texas Tech
5. Florida
6. USC
7. Utah
8. Penn State
9. Boise State
10. Georgia (I’d have no problem putting Oklahoma State in the ten spot)

Les Miles Sucks

Hey, one more note on the Houndstooth front, and nothing that should surprise anyone: LSU’s Les Miles is a big, fat boob. I know you LSU fans are tired of hearing it, but it’s about to be said again: Les has won with Nick Saban’s players. He won the national championship with Nick’s players, and now his true colors are coming out; with his own players, he can’t get it done. Not that I’m really eager for LSU to fire Miles, no, as an Alabama fan I’d rather them keep him around as long as possible. It’s going to be a lot of fun watching LSU suck for years to come. If they did hire a new coach though, and the new coach happens to be a fireballer…well; at that point LSU might once again be a contender. If Nick Saban was the LSU coach this year they’d win the national championship going away. Going away.

11-0

Not much else to say. Roll Tide Roll and keep on Rollin.